A serious macro asset moves steadier than a lottery ticket. Smaller mania, tamer top, no vertical blow-off.
The thread · 01
The network never got euphoric
MVRV: price vs. what holders actually paid. Tops at 3.5+ ended in 80% crashes.
The thread · 01
The new buyer cuts both ways
~$59B
ETF inflows since 2024
3×
Vs. pre-launch forecast
−$1.3B
Late-May · 6 days out
A deep base of demand — but now Bitcoin feels the same macro fears as stocks and bonds.
The macro squeeze · 02
The Fed is stuck
Sets the price of money. The price of money sets the mood for everything risky.
Inflation sticky near 3.8% — cut forecasts scrapped
Rates held at 3.50–3.75%
Two jobs, opposite ways: kill inflation vs. support growth
While inflation wins, Bitcoin stays under pressure
The macro squeeze · 02
An oil shock out of Iran
A Fed fighting inflation cannot cut into an oil shock. This is why your rate cuts vanished.
US–Israel air war on Iran since late February
Strait of Hormuz — ~20% of world oil — choked off
Brent spiked past $120; IEA: largest oil disruption ever
April ceasefire → oil ~$92, but the damage is done
The macro squeeze · 02
The reason I stay a Bitcoiner: the debt
$39T
US national debt
$3B
Interest · per day
#2
Budget line · after Soc. Sec.
Two ways out: rates high and interest explodes, or cut and debase the dollar. Neither is kind to people holding cash.
The competition · 03
And then there's AI
In a risk-on scramble, Bitcoin and AI fish for the same dollar. Right now AI is winning.
Capital rotated out of Bitcoin into AI this spring
Nvidia: $216B revenue, +65% · Big Tech ~$400B capex
ETFs bled $4B+ in three weeks chasing chips
AI has earnings to model — Bitcoin runs on liquidity & narrative
Connect the dots
Risk asset one day. Escape hatch the next.
Bitcoin only loses to Nvidia while it trades as a risk asset. The day the dollar is the worry, it stops competing with chips — and starts competing with gold.
What I'm watching
Three ways the next few months play out
Base case
The grind
Hostile macro holds. Bitcoin bleeds and chops lower for months. Watch for an internal leverage blow-up.
The wildcard
The debasement bid
Debt fear sends capital to hard assets. Bitcoin rises even with high rates — moving with gold, not the Nasdaq.
The upside
The easy pivot
Ceasefire firms, oil falls, Fed signals cuts. Risk-on returns, the correction ends shallow.
Two of these end with Bitcoin higher — for opposite reasons.
One takeaway
The correction is the noise. The debt is the signal.
Bitcoin Advisory Podcast
Thanks for watching.
Not financial advice. Hold only what you understand well enough to sit through a 50% drawdown.