Hey friends,
Wild week we had. Bitcoin bounced between $68,000 and $71,000 in the first half of the week before selling pressure dragged it down to $66,600 by Friday, a roughly 6% drop from Monday's open. The culprits? A collision of massive derivative expirations, institutional outflows, and a geopolitical backdrop that refuses to calm down.
Here are your 5 things you need to know from this week.
1. The Biggest Options Expiry of 2026 Just Rocked the Market
On Friday, approximately $14.16 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts expired on Deribit which was the largest single expiry event of the year so far. The "max pain" price (the level where the most options expire worthless) sat around $75,000, but with spot trading near $66,000, that gap meant a massive wave of hedging activity and forced liquidations. Bitcoin dropped as low as $65,720 intraday on Thursday as traders scrambled to adjust positions ahead of the event.
Over $885 million in leveraged longs were liquidated across multiple days this week. If you've ever wondered why Bitcoin can move 5% in hours for seemingly no reason, this is why. Derivatives are a hidden engine underneath the spot market, and quarterly expiries are when that engine revs loudest.
2. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Saw Its Biggest Single-Day Outflow in Months
On Friday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their largest net outflows in three weeks, led by BlackRock's IBIT and ARK 21Shares' ARKB. Exact figures vary by data provider, estimates range from $171 million to $225 million in total net outflows for the day, but the direction is clear: institutions were sellers, not buyers.
This marks a notable shift in sentiment from earlier in March when ETF inflows were steadily supporting price. It's worth remembering that ETF flows are not a crystal ball. They tend to be reactive, not predictive but when the world's largest asset manager is seeing net redemptions, it tells you the mood in traditional finance has turned cautious. Bitcoin is down roughly 24% from its January 1st open near $87,600, and institutions are clearly recalibrating their risk exposure.
3. Middle East Tensions Continue to Weigh on Risk Assets
The geopolitical backdrop hasn't gotten any easier. Ongoing military activity in Gaza, Red Sea shipping disruptions, and simmering Iran-Israel tensions continue to drain global risk appetite.
Brent crude has nearly doubled since the start of the year from around $61/barrel in January to over $112/barrel by late this week, carrying serious inflationary implications that complicate the Federal Reserve's path forward. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh's Fed Chair nomination remains at an impasse in the Senate because it has been blocked for weeks now by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is refusing to advance the confirmation until the DOJ drops its investigation into current Chair Powell. With Powell's term expiring May 15, the leadership vacuum at the Fed is adding another layer of uncertainty to monetary policy. When the world gets scarier, capital flows into gold, government bonds, and the U.S. dollar and out of risk assets like Bitcoin. This is a pattern as old as markets. Bitcoin's long-term thesis as "digital gold" will be tested precisely in environments like this one.
4. Strategy (Formerly MicroStrategy) Now Holds 762,099 Bitcoin and It's Basically Alone
Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to be the only meaningful corporate buyer of Bitcoin. The company acquired roughly 45,000 BTC in the past month, while every other corporate treasury buyer combined purchased approximately 1,000 BTC.
Strategy now controls about 76% of all Bitcoin held by public companies and owns over 762,000 coins at an aggregate cost basis in the range of $50–57 billion, depending on the source. With current spot well below the company's most recent purchase prices, the position is under meaningful pressure. Meanwhile, the broader corporate adoption story has stalled. About 193 public companies collectively hold Bitcoin, but with BTC struggling for a sixth consecutive month, almost nobody besides Strategy is adding. This concentration is a double-edged sword: it's a massive vote of confidence from Saylor, but it also means the "institutional adoption" narrative rests heavily on one firm's balance sheet and its ability to keep raising capital through its $84 billion "42/42" plan.
5. Bitcoin Weekly Concept: Max Pain
You probably noticed the term "max pain" in the options story above. Here's what it actually means. In options trading, the "max pain" price is the strike price at which the largest number of open options contracts (both puts and calls) would expire worthless. It represents the price level where option sellers, typically large market makers and institutions, would pay out the least amount of money. The theory is that because option sellers have an economic incentive to see the price settle near max pain at expiry, the spot price can be "magnetically" pulled toward that level in the days leading up to expiration. This week, max pain was $75,000, but spot was trading near $66,000-$67,000 which is a massive gap. When spot is that far below max pain, it means bearish sentiment overwhelmed the usual gravitational pull. Max pain isn't destiny but it's a useful lens for understanding why prices behave strangely around expiry dates, and why options markets matter far more than most people realize.
That's your Bitcoin Weekly. See you next week.
Stay stacking, Bitcoin Advisory