Welcome to another edition of The Bitcoin Weekly!

Every week, we break down the four most important events shaping Bitcoin, from protocol updates to the macroeconomic and geopolitical forces driving the market. We explain what happened, why it matters, and how it impacts your stack. Plus, we always include one educational concept to help you level up your Bitcoin knowledge.

Let’s dive into this week’s top stories.

1. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is Coming Soon

At the Consensus Miami 2026 conference this week, White House digital-assets adviser Patrick Witt announced that an update on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is coming "in the next few weeks." Since Trump signed the executive order in March 2025, the administration has halted the "fire sale" liquidations of seized Bitcoin and has been auditing holdings across federal agencies.

The U.S. currently holds an estimated 198,000–328,000 BTC from criminal forfeitures, making it the largest sovereign Bitcoin holder in the world. Importantly, the current reserve is built entirely from seized Bitcoin, no taxpayer money. To make the reserve legit and potentially direct the Treasury to actively purchase 200,000 BTC per year for five years, Congress would need to pass Sen. Cynthia Lummis's BITCOIN Act, which is currently in the Senate Banking Committee

For Bitcoin, this is a massive institutional and sovereign validation for Bitcoin. The U.S. government has already removed a significant source of sell pressure by halting liquidations. But the real game-changer is the BITCOIN Act. If passed, it would make the U.S. the first sovereign nation to actively accumulate Bitcoin as a reserve asset, potentially purchasing up to 1 million BTC over five years.

That changes the game theory for every other nation-state watching. It also sets a precedent: Bitcoin is not a seized asset to be auctioned off, it is a strategic reserve asset to be held for 20 years minimum.

2. The Strait of Hormuz: War, Peace Hopes, and Bitcoin

The Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supplies, dominated markets all week. The story had two distinct acts.

Early in the week, oil prices surged above $100/barrel as U.S.-Iran military exchanges intensified. Then, on Wednesday, Axios reported that the U.S. was expecting Iran's response to a proposed 14-point memorandum of understanding within 48 hours. Trump simultaneously paused the U.S. naval mission to reopen the strait, citing progress in peace talks. Oil immediately crashed over 7% (WTI settled at $95.08), and global stock markets rallied sharply.

By Thursday, however, renewed military exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces rattled the fragile ceasefire, sending oil back up. Iran also launched a formal "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" this week to administer tolls, payable in cryptocurrency,on ships transiting the strait

This is the story that most directly explains Bitcoin's price action this week. When the peace deal headlines dropped and oil crashed, Bitcoin climbed toward $82,000 alongside a 1%+ rise in Nasdaq futures, a classic risk-on move. But Bitcoin also held its ground during the escalation phases, reinforcing its dual narrative: a risk asset that rallies with equities when liquidity improves, and a safe-haven asset that holds value when geopolitical uncertainty spikes.

The cryptocurrency toll story adds another layer. A nation-state embedding digital assets into global energy trade is a meaningful signal for Bitcoin's long-term role in the world financial system.

3. The Fed's "Shock Warning" and the Next Chair

The macroeconomic environment remains tense. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its April 29 meeting. Three regional Fed presidents, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, dissented against the statement's language signaling future rate cuts, warning that the Iran war and energy-driven inflation could force the Fed to raise rates instead. Kashkari appeared on CBS's Face the Nation on May 3 and said bluntly: "We might have to go the other direction."

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, who has affirmed a pro-crypto stance, cleared the Senate Banking Committee 13–11 on April 29, with a full Senate floor vote expected the week of May 11. Powell's term ends May 15.

For Bitcoin, high interest rates typically pressure risk assets by tightening liquidity. However, Bitcoin has continued to rise despite the Fed's hawkish tone, suggesting that investors are increasingly viewing it as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement rather than just a speculative tech stock. The upcoming transition to Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair adds a layer of uncertainty, but his openness to digital assets could be a long-term tailwind for Bitcoin adoption.

4. Bollinger Bands Creator Calls a New Bull Market

John Bollinger, the legendary inventor of the Bollinger Bands trading indicator, officially called a new Bitcoin bull market this week. He posted on social media that his trend model for Bitcoin had turned positive and that his Tactica program is now "fully invested".

This came as Bitcoin posted its second daily close above the upper Bollinger Band on Wednesday, something it had not done since mid-January. By Thursday, Bitcoin had pulled back below $80,000, but Bollinger maintained his bullish stance, noting that a close above the upper band is a breakout signal, not a sell signal. The same day, a newly created whale wallet withdrew 2,500 BTC worth $202 million from Binance in a single hour.

When the creator of one of the most widely used technical indicators in traditional finance goes "fully invested" in Bitcoin, the market pays attention. The Bollinger Band breakout, combined with the $202 million whale accumulation happening the same day, suggests the smart money is positioning for a sustained move higher, not just a short-term bounce. The pullback below $80K on Thursday is worth watching: if Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above the upper band, it would confirm the breakout. If it fails, Bollinger himself warned back in January: "it's back into the trenches."

5. Bitcoin Concept of the Week: The Halving Supply Shock

You often hear Bitcoiners talk about the "halving" and the "supply shock." But what does that actually mean?

Bitcoin has a fixed, hard-capped supply of 21 million coins. New Bitcoins are created and awarded to miners roughly every 10 minutes as a reward for securing the network. However, this reward is programmed to be cut in half every 210,000 blocks (about every four years). This event is called the Halving.

A supply shock occurs when the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market is suddenly reduced, but the demand for Bitcoin remains the same or increases. Think of it like a sudden drop in the production of gold. If everyone still wants to buy gold, but miners are only digging up half as much as they used to, the price naturally has to go up to find a new equilibrium.

We last experienced a halving in 2024, meaning the daily issuance of new Bitcoin dropped significantly. As institutional demand (like ETFs and sovereign reserves) continues to eat up the available supply, this programmed scarcity is a fundamental driver of Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Thanks for reading! If you enjoyed this week's breakdown, share it with a friend who needs to get off zero.

Stay humble, stack sats.

- Stephan